I can’t find any other words & apologize for the obscenity, but the suggestion that all the Hillary voters, and other women, would vote for him because he found a woman who will run with him just pisses me off.
Take your condescension & shove it, McCain.
The cynicism of this move is even more despicable.
She is anti-choice, pro-creationism, and for drilling in Alaska.
She’s also SUPER pro-gun and a Beauty Pageant Winner.
Very weak on economics (see Dairy mess) and foreign policy.
I don’t think Gov. Sarah Palin will help McCain. I’ll give him credit for this, though. He probably upset a few people in his party establishment.
Then again, it might have been a very calculated move. More of what we don’t need in Washington.
I want the right woman in the White House, not the wrong woman a heartbeat away.
His choice is yet another sign of senility. Kay Bailey Hutchison, Christine Todd Whitman, & other Republican women were far more qualified. Palin’s been governor for less than 2 years. And I hate to say it, but listening to her speech is more like listening to a high school pep rally than a presidential campaign rally. Biden will destroy her in a debate.
Just how out of it is John McCain?!
a totally calculated move – and a dispicable one at that , considering there are still PUMA hold outs who would actually cast a republican vote. because they are so pissed about Hillary not getting through the process.
Word on the street is they cannot fill their convention, speakers have backed out – this is a move that is unbelievably stategic and a true last gasp to keep the uninformed who will not vote in their best interests right in the palm of their hand. Most callers on C- span have the shallowist reasons – to support the rethugs..
This is unbelievable and i am gonna keep working my ass off educating people about Obama – god help us ALL if we get more of the same…this country , its working poor are being ground into the dirt…luckily the calls coming into the convention are mixed…And lets not forget Alaska is one of the most CORRUPT states in the UNION.
When I first read about the choice, I seriously thought it was an Onion article.
The definition of insanity is voting Republican over and over expecting different results.
I am, and will stay a Hillary supporter.
This trumped up ex beauty queen excuse of a coathanger abortion that has been chosen to run for VP ICCCCCKKKKKK!
I have grave doubts about Obama’s ability to make good on his ideas in congress. I will vote for him, but I do have huge doubts.
I’m afraid for us, for women, for hard working blue collar folks, for anyone who does not have a huge amount of power and money.
I’d like to think that as president Mr. Obama will be effective, and able to keep his promises. I’ll wait and see I guess.
Seriously though, McCain turned 74 last night (and he’ll reach 82 in 8 years). McCain’s VP pick could actually see time in the oval office. Does she look like president material?
On the other hand, Palin does fulfill the critical hotness requirement for the office of the vice predidency. So we’re covered there.
An utterly brilliant move. This is “not” cynical or condescending. This pick is directed precisely at traditional voting Reagan Democrats. It also has the potential of revitalizing the Republican Party as the outside party to reform Washington. Strategically, it can also change the demographics within the Republican Party to make those voters permanent Republican voters. Please step back and ponder. Briefly her demos are:
1. Union family, husband is USW.
2. Lifetime NRA member. Do you not realize how important that is to Reagan Democrats?
3. She is an outsider from Washington.
4. She does not have elite credentials.
She resonates precisely with the abandoned voters that elected Ronald Reagan.
This is huge…
I have already have one friend that advised she is switching her vote…
Catrina,
I think you’re wrong. McCain just threw his whole “experience” argument out the window and by nominating someone from the evangelical wing with a strong ProLife record he seriously undercuts his chance at any of the Hillary voters.
Sure, he strengthens his base with the pick (well, the evangelical wing) but he does nothing for moderates or independents. The NRA argument is overblown and having a Union family doesn’t mean shit if you’re a Republican.
Finally, the Reagan democrat thing is a dying meme. You do realize that Reagan democrats are now 30-40 years older now? That’s a lot of time and water under the bridge.
Elite credentials? What, are you buying into the meme that Obama is an elite? I thought you were smarter than that.
Sorry, I think this is as bad a pick as Quayle was.
Can she spell “potato?”
The presidency is an elite office. I want the best of the best of pres. I certainly hope my presidential candidate is elite.
Weird thing is, she still has young children, a baby! the typical conservative drivel requires that women stay at home when children are young. She is definitely a maverick in that regard. Who is taking care of her children, a nanny? This is something most conservative christians would find intolerable. This is going to be fun, I’m stocking up on popcorn!
She has way less experience than Quayle did. Two years ago she was part-time mayor of a town of 6,000 people, I believe. I agree that this pretty much removes the “not enough experience” arrow from McCain’s quiver. And you’re right, VZ. If the Democrats had picked a mother of young children, the Republican pundits would be fulminating already about the evils of feminism, and “who will think of the children?”
This is so obviously a purely political choice, a “Hail Mary” thrown in the hope of attracting disgruntled Hillary voters. (All those Hillary voters who believe that creationism should be taught in public schools!) I so hope it backfires. Obviously, the “expectations” game will “require” Biden to dominate their debate, and anything less than that will be spun as some kind of a “better than expectations” victory for the Republicans. I’m thinking, though, that maybe he can meet expectations.
That is true Buddha Biden will out debate this vp pick. Hands down..but i fear that people are so uninformed..so entrenched. I have a X friend..a old timey feminist who lives actually off her retired common law husbands pension..she is one frustrated lady. She is so sorry to say it, but racsist , so entrenched in the Obama mis information out there that she would not answer me when i asked her if she was a PUMA – and if she who prides herself on being a leftie , would actually vote for McPain or just not vote at all – she is deeply involved in voice chat rooms..they sling around racial slurs and i am appalled this person is also native american – she proclaims she in not homophobic but in our IM friendship in the past yrs she betrayed herself with certain comments..
Anyone at all who has one iolta of concern for this country , which damn well may be beyond hope as an empire – but people still do have to live through the downfall – who would vote for republican as a so called “protest vote” is officially unhinged in my mind. I can appreciate not voting – and have some overly priviledged leftest friends who don’t vote because it only encourages them.
Me i have tried to deepen my thinking – not be a knee jerk liberal but a true progressive and until we have a constitutional set up for third parties , it ain’t gonna happen. all we get is devisive bitching and moaning without the steps to the solutions for changing the system..our system is not set up for third parties – it just isn’t.
We can only hold the congresses (and its gonna take at least two to repair the damage ) with hopefully filibuster proof democratic majorities in both houses feet to the fire if we stay involved. Being involved does not preclude doing things outside the system either ! Gardening, setting up barter economies in our towns..having progressive movie nights , issue oriented task forces etc..
But to see some so called dems..and i am a former green and a socialist who re registrered to TRY ONE MORE TIME – But to to see some yellow dog dems even think of voting for McPain out of protest over Hilary after one of the most well run and exciting conventions EVER , i mean hell MI and Florida got seated
– well there are just no words for the stupidity of that. sour grapes a little ?
And for those that feel they cannot “trust” Obama – he is not perfect , but he has integrity – he is not as left as one might wish , THAT MEANS HE IS REALITY BASED and ready to do what it takes to WIN mix it up with all the power players. – that makes a person a real contender NOT ELITEST ,
rest assured we all will be in far better hands with Obama and Biden then we ever would be with more of the same. They are capable of listening to people, including a variety of advisors..
This VP pick is par for the course for the thugs. And dammit i am truly fearful that as our empire slips into oblivian that what we will live through will make the Great Depression look like a bad mood.
Does anybody listen anymore, nevermind rhetorical question – americans like to be spoon fed sound bytes..and i need to stop now because i could go on and on. Vote for sanity , vote for someone who does give a crap about human beings..will every promise be forfilled – NO But if we can get dem majorities in both the house and senate filabuster proof , things will change.
The more I think about Palin’s choice, the more upset I get. While I sincerely hope Obama wins in November, I still think McCain could win (race is STILL an issue in 2008). The thought of having yet another president in the White House who lacks any sense of realistic judgement frightens me to no end. McCain’s had a lot of “senior moments” in the past few months, & I think the Palin decision is yet another.
Buddha i am scared to death – shit i wanted to move to canada when Reagan won – i am beyond and around the bend on all of this – racism is very much alive and well in this country..to say any different is a damn lie. ok outta here gotta go to town..
its cool to talk politics off the forum…lovin it !
Catrina, your friend is misguided or insane to switch votes based on this VP choice.
Saying that she’s from a “Union family” is sort of like saying “he’s a gay Republican”; it may very well be true but you have wonder what the hell they’re thinking: it’s the “chickens for Colonel Sanders” argument.
I thought of Quayle immediately, and I think Helen’s right;it’s a cynical “hail Mary” to grab a few Hilary voters, as if they would vote for an anti-choice pro-creationist? The pro-gun thing is actually old news now with the supreme court decision and Obama addressed it in his speech; he may lose some gang member votes though.
Any truth to rumor that they duped Romney at the last second?
lol..I meant “dumped” but that was funnier….
Hi Betty:
Point well taken. However, please consider it is the strategy that is significant as well as the tactical pick for this election. This new strategy can work for the Republicans. It has worked in the past. If McCain had chosen some moribund guy like Huckabee, or Romney, or a sitting elected Republican Senator, electing Obama would be an extra point. But he didn’t.
New and fresh works for Republicans too especially when the strategy theme is “Maverick” and a significant portion of the voters are fed up with a dysfunctional government. With this pick, McCain just refocused the discussion not on bloated budgets, and country club Republican malfeasance, but on reform because she has a track record of fighting entrenched Republican crap. That amplifies McCain’s maverick side and further separates him from Bush and the country club Republicans “nobody” likes.
IMHO, the experience issue is still going to be a fight. Palin doesn’t have any experience. But she is not running for President. She is a VP nom. McCain can still use the experience issue on Barack.
IMHO, this pick very specifically focuses on “disaffected” Democrats that are traditional values voters. Again, demo groups that are high school educated, working class, but conservative in value structure. Many are Catholic (and will listen to their Priest before Nancy P) That means they are pro life to a certain degree.
In swing States the NRA is huge. We who live in more sophisticated urban areas find it difficult to grasp how strong the NRA influence is in small city – town rural areas and some large city collar counties. The NRA hardcore membership at last look exceeds 6 million. Data shows that where the NRA is strong, the precise geographical locations that will swing the election, the NRA adds 3 to 5% increase in an endorsed candidate vote tally. That is huge in critical voting districts. Members are very active voters, activists and usually take two more voters with them to the polls. That means the NRA controls about 18 million votes nationwide.
IMHO, Barack made a huge error in the “bitter guns and God comment”. After that Hilary tore him apart in Ohio and PA. He is vulnerable there big time. He also did not help himself last night with the hunter – AK47 comment with the voters I am talking about.
Re: Reagan Democrats: Yes quite correct… agree fully. It is a phrase that does though briefly (for blogging purposes) try to describe a genre of voters. And fully agree, they are a moving target demographically, geographically, sociologically. This again returns to the focus of this post on “strategy”. McCain is trying to redirect the Repubs from the idiots that went gaga on Teri Schievo (spelling?) by re-emphasizing rugged individualism values that are retained by lower middle class and working populists. (Again this is a generalization for blogging. It is of course more complex.)
Those voters “hate” the country club Repubs. (who doesn’t?) But still retain certain value structures within certain demographic groups that have not been the focus of Democratic leadership for a long time. Those voters have been disaffected for a long time. (They are not evengelicals). Essentially, IMHO, McCain is trying to move the Repubs to a point where those voters no longer are Reagan “Democrats” but instead, working class, rugged individualist “Republican” populists. He is going for a long term electorate majority.
Re: Elitism: Of course not!!!! It is not what I am thinking or perceiving. It is what this genre of voters is thinking that I am referencing.
As my Senator I happen to have met Barack on a few occasions. I like him, very personable guy. (I confess, Michelle is a little… well we won’t get into it.) I also retain post grad degrees from equally prestigious universities. However, the dilemma Barack has on the “eltist” issue ,(and that word is used for the sake of blogging simplicity) pertains to the up to now, insularity of his political life. He comes from Hyde Park truly a very progressive egghead community that houses the University of Chicago. Amplify the fact that he is a machine pol. He didn’t even have to win the Dem primary. One gets appointed by the machine. So Barack is used to winning by dealing exclusively with decision makers and progressive activists. Illinois is a blue State. Once getting nominated for Senator, that is also an automatic. But running a national race isn’t. There are threads of thinking, cultural beliefs etc. that he and his staff have never had to contend with. Hence, those other voters can and probably do consider him an elitist.
Sorry for the length. But this election is at a crossroads. Barack got only a minimal bounce from the convention, about ten points. But that is very tenuous. Rasmussen B 47% / McC 43%. (Pre speech poll)
This will be a tough election. I fully understand that many bloggers here will disagree. But McCain just reshuffled the deck with the Palin choice. Many more voters just became undecided voters.
oh i agree it’s going to be a tough race, & that the democrats are fooling themselves if they think it’s in the bag. but i don’t think anyone thinks that.
any woman who votes the Republican Party and specifically for McCain doesn’t even deserve my scorn. life or choice isn’t the issue. votes against equal pay for equal work IS – and that’s what McCain voted against.
so i expect Palin will be getting 70% of what VPs are usually paid. if she doesn’t, she works for the wrong party.
“We who live in more sophisticated urban areas ”
is precisely why we (democrats) have to constantly fight charges of elitism.
& buddha, thanks for saying it. race IS still an issue in 2008. & not just because some people won’t vote for a black man, but because we have a pandemic # of black men in prison, or who have felony convictions that will disable them from voting.
“Barack got only a minimal bounce from the convention, about ten points”
10 points is a pretty big bounce.
Look…..The Republicans do one thing very very well,and that’s go negative, but at what point does that stop sustaining people?
There’s always going to be the dumbasses who are hardcore Limbaugh/Savage/O’Reilly fans, they have to be wondering what McCain(a guy they loudly have said they don’t trust) is going to offer them that Bush hasn’t.
The gun thing has changed a lot on the ground since the Supreme Court made it clear no one is losing their gun(I’m sure Wayne LaPierre, being the GOP lapdog he is, will be working overtime to convince them that they can) and the fact the Democrats know this until it’s boring, already. That’s why Barack said, essentially, “live in the country? You need a gun and we ain’t takin’ it”. I’ve worked on numerous AFL/CIO campaigns, even urban ones, and they go to great pains to insure the more conservative unions(IBEW,UAW, Police, Fire) that no one wants to go crazy with now gun laws, unless it protects public service workers.
In a nutshell, I think Palin was a choice to please everyone that in the end won’t please anyone…
Oh, and yes, Helen, I agree, McCain, does suck.
Senator McCain chose Governor Palin for three reasons.
1.) She will move the Conservative Evangelical base to the polls.
2.) Appeal to the 25% of Democrat women who tell pollsters that they will not vote for Candidate Obama.
3.) She is the only candidate in the race with Executive experience, the rest are Senators which is sad commentary in and of itself.
Addendum,
4.) Senator Biden, will be unable to eviscerate her during the Vice Presidential Debate, lest he be perceived by large chunks of the electorate to be mean spirited.
Senator Biden however will still probably commit a giant gaff during the debate, because… he is Joe Biden after all.
Right….
The 25% of democratic women, Hilary Supporters, that are pro-choice, anti-gay, pro-offshore drilling and pro-Creationist?
Agreed..piece of cake.
Some stats for pondering….
If one retains a post grad degree and has income in excess of about $120,000 a year or higher, 60% are going “O”.
If one is a union member of a private industry union (not AFT or NCPA) like the unions Divadraya mentioned, members regularly vote Repub about 40%. The gun issue was and is still big.
In 1994-5 Bill Clinton confided that the Dems lost 40 House seats min and at least 3 Senate seats due to the passing of the Assault Weapons ban in 93-94. The Dems could never ever have elected some one like James Webb (D-VA) to the Senate without the NRA endorsing him (which they did, gave him an A rating.) Without Webb, VP Cheney would still be Senate President.
Yes. “DivaD fully agree. The recent S Court ruling has helped clarify the issue. Again though Mayor Daily is fighting the lifting of the Chicago gun ban. Because Barack is so closely linked to city policy, the NRA is going to savage him. They do support many western Dem Senators. Max Baucus is an example.
Nationally that is how closely divided this country is.
Update:
Post speech Barack bump has evaporated. he was up 8 points immediately after the speech. Rasmussen has it now back to “O” 48% McC 43% about where it was before the speech. Margin of error is 3.5% That is practically a dead heat going into the Repub convention.
Hi Leah B:
Yes, 10 points looks to be big. Please note though it is now almost within margin of error jsut with the Palin announcment. McC is going to get a bounce next week unless the convention is a total screw up. In this day and age of scripted conventions in both parties, that is doubtful. The demonstrators in St Paul, if they turn violent, will “not help” O. They will help McC by contrast.
The bounce needed to be in the high teens (15-20 points). It did not happen. But lets see what the polls show in about a week when they settle out.
Alli makes an interesting point too. Visualize Sen Biden up against someone like Huckabee. Lets move forward, Sen Biden up against Palin. Does anybody remember the Hilary Senate debate with Lazio? This VP debate can be explosive.
I guess you can kinda tell we’re a divided country huh?
I’m tired of people who don’t know me telling me what I think or don’t think, or telling me that being “liberal” means I’m elitist, a pervert, a terrorist sympathizer and against free enterprise.
What I heard Obama say last night was that we have much in common and much to do, he laid down, as Helen said, a classic populist speech.
McCain couldn’t run with Romney, because that would be two old rich white guys one of whom the evangelical base would reject as a member of a”cult” religion.
Look me in the eye and tell me that the female Hilary voters will say”Oh well,she may be anti-choice, but she IS a woman!” Speaking of that, when will the GOP quit talking about Hilary and begin talking about their own vision for the future?
I’ve walked precincts in Compton(not the “elite” part of L.A.) with members of IBEW 11, pipefitters and UAW workers. Unions don’t always vote the same way, unless it is about wages, benefits and union rights, and believe me, after eight years of these jackals gutting the labor department,they’ll vote their pocketbooks and ideals
Daily tracking polls are next to meaningless. So are the weekly national ones. The only polls that matter are state ones and I can guarantee you that those are the ones the Obama campaign is paying attention to.
Remember, it’s the electoral college that matters… not the popular vote. Like it or not, that’s how we elect a president.
And speaking of the electoral college, Obama has a nice lead and is on the offense in far more states than McCain is.
Just saying.
It hust seems to me that McCain choosing an obscure governor to help him compete against Obama/Biden is like a TV network programmer deciding what to air opposite the Super Bowl. Would it really have mattered?
Betty’s right. Obama’s had a consistent lead in most battleground states. And even for those within margins of error, margins of error become less meaningful the more polls show similar results. With the exception of week or two prior to the DNC, Obama has consistently led by about %5.
And convention bounces aren’t guaranteed. Kerry didn’t get a convention bounce. Why? Because there was nothing there that convinced voters Kerry was a winner. The RNC this year doesn’t seem like it will be one of the best either. Republicans are RUNNING from that thing. No one wants to be a Republican right now (even McCain). And there’s a hurricane set to crash into New Orleans on the night that Bush is speaking. McCain COULD get a 5 point bounce, but he’s gonna have to earn it, and it won’t be easy.
As for protestors getting violent, don’t bet on it. I’ve lived in the Twin Cities all my life, and we’re not San Fransisco or Seattle. Minneapolis and St. Paul are liberal cities, but not militant ones. Minnesota nice, yo?
Hi All:
Yeah….. agree with all the comments particularly Betty’s comments on swing State polls where the electoral college will be determined. They are the key success drivers. Yet, the overnight polls do generally show what is working and what is not in the campaign…. and that is important too.
Just as an example daily tracking picked up that “B”s international trip was a loser for him, particularly the “citizens of the world speech”. they allow adjustments in technique and tactics. Bill’s admin watched the polls everyday and slowly moved them up into the high 50s low 60s. It was what saved him in during impeachment. An analysis of the polls might have moved “B”s speech back into the Pepsi Hall. IMHO it would have been far more affective, the bounce bigger without the spectacle. Every time the cameras panned back, it seemed to drown out the B’s message and charisma.
The polls for the next two weeks should reflect emotional swings in the electorate. The next serious polls should say alot about a week after the Repubs convention. Those should reflect a diminishing swing from both conventions. (McCain should get a bounce. All conventions do. But then it settles out to a mean more reflective of what’s happening.)
Unions are definitely resurgent this election. Bush admin has ravaged them. About 25% of the delegates to the convention were union reps. Yet, as DivaD and I share something in common, work with unions, the sit rep described by DivaD is not happening in the Midwest, especially in private ind unions. It is not the gun issue either. It is more about energy.
St Paul and demonstrators…. I just saw a report last night about demonstrators in St. Paul. They are going to outnumber the demonstrators in Denver 10 to 1. Needless to say, the concern is not St Paul people, (Know the twin cities well. It is a wonderful city. I visit White Bear Lake area twice a year to visit friends. :))
It is impossible to tell what the planners of the demonstration have in mind or if they can control that amount of people. The report states the police are short 3,000 staff. The CofP is worried according to the report.
BTW: Are you aware that this blog is being watched by the Obama campaign? Helen’s blog is considered a leading edge blog.
Well then, I guess it’s only a matter of time then before the Obama people call you up for your inside knowledge and expert advice. Keep the dream alive, sparky.
Remember too, Catrina, that the tracking polls are showing the result of both Obama’s speech bump AND McCain’s VP bump. That’s a 5 percent NET gain.
As for Obama’s charisma being drowned out by the cheers of 80,000 people…
As much as I was looking forward to watching Lieberman droll and drool down the campaign trail, it looks like this is going to be a fun ride too. After all, I always did love this show:
Any one else notice that all the Gov’s kids are named nouns? Why, it’s almost like she named her children in the same fashion that McNasty chose her: in a game of Mad Libs (or Mad Cons as the case may be).
So, if you’re looking for me between now and November, I’ll be on the couch w VZoya munching on kernals and coming up with the most profane adjectives my brain can muster.
Ms. Truffle:
Helen and Betty know what I am doing from sharing private messages about the Obama campaign. You are way off base with your arrogant, caustic, cruel, and non contributing comments and direct personal attacks on me concerning these posts. They do not further our discourse here.
…and my name is not Sparky. It is Catrina.
I find skepticism of unverifiable claims and long-winded, self-serving essays to be a contribution in almost any setting.
Bunky.
Y’know, Sparktrina, so far you’ve been a millionaire businessman, an entrepreneur, a transperson of some undefined stripe, and now you’re someone with deep and vaguely secret insider connections. Here’s my suggestion: put up or shut up. Either show us some evidence that you are what you say you are, or just STFU. I’m fully expecting you to say that you can’t do anything publicly because it would blow your cover as a secret agent.
Almost everyone who posts here or on MHB is public, without any of the attendant bullshit that falls so trippingly from your tongue. The trans world, indeed any group, really doesn’t benefit from the sort of just-over-the-border-of-loontown assertions you’ve been making.
Tell you what, with all your millions. You set up Helen with a $5k/month (after taxes) trust and I’ll publicly apologize, STFU, and say I was wrong.
Your turn.
Oh, and I should point out that living in an urban area doesn’t make you sophisticated. Not being a dick makes you sophistimacated. Oopsie! I guess we know where that leaves me. And there are plenty of nerd liberals who are members of the NRA, like me, who will vote against McCain by voting for Obama.
hey, folks: please lay off the personal attacks & hardcore snarkiness. rather, be as snarky as you like against McCain, but please lay off picking on each other so much.
And when I heard Palin announced as the choice, I got very worried.
I don’t think that this will end up making a difference in the Pres/VP race, but I think that it has the potential to be *huge* down-ticket.
First of all, understand that while I live in Seattle, I work in the Alaskan fishing industry. I don’t know anything about her myself, but I have never heard anyone who has met her describe her in other than glowing terms. She has personal charisma, and she is apparently not part of the Stevens machine, which used to be a liability but is now a huge asset. Most people in AK love her, and AK is one of those strange states that has a lot of connections to WA, ID, OR, MT, and even CA that most people don’t realize. I think that everything in those states — again, expecially downticket– just got a lot tighter.
Here in WA state, we have a governor’s race which is a rerun of one that Gregoire won four years ago by 108 votes. This choice has the potential to get conservatives to come to the polls who would otherwise have sat this one out, and that makes me *very* worried about the governor’s election.
I also worry that hitting her for her lack of experience will backfire. Rural voters can be a prickly bunch, and if the dems aren’t careful, it will come off looking like a class thing. And that could blow their chances of picking up some congressional seats and maybe even governors that would have been doable with a more establishment pick.